PhosAgro 2Q 2019 FCF up 22% to RUB 10.2 bln

RUB/USD rates: average 2Q 2019: 64.6; average 2Q 2018: 61.8; as of 30 June 2019: 63.1; as of 31 December 2018: 69.5

** EBITDA is calculated as operating profit adjusted for depreciation and amortisation.

* adjusted for non-cash FX items (Net profit as reported minus FX gain or loss)

Commenting on the 2Q 2019 financial results, PhosAgro CEO Andrey Guryev said: 

“While 2019 has seen market turbulence on unfavourable weather conditions in the USA and Europe and high export activity in China and the Middle East, PhosAgro has shown its resilience with an industry-leading EBITDA margin, impressive free cash flow generation and decreasing leverage. This performance is driven by the successful completion of our five-year strategy, which was focused on vertical integration and flexibility in distribution. This has enabled us to maximise value for a wide range of stakeholders. Consistent strong free cash flow performance and stable dividend distributions over the last four quarters shows we achieved these goals.

“Equally important, by delivering double-digit growth in production over the last 5 years PhosAgro has enhanced its ability to produce and sell products with exceptional environmental characteristics that can set the global standard. As one of the world’s largest fertilizer producers, with products used in 100 countries globally, we are conscious of our role in supporting food security, protecting soil resources and producing clean and healthy agricultural products on a global scale. In the long term, we aim to further leverage the unique apatite-nepheline ore that PhosAgro mines in Khibiny and implement best available technologies to achieve our strategic goals that will strengthen our position as a producer of environmentally safe phosphate-based fertilizers while also further enhancing the Company’s cash cost advantage. The Board of Directors and I have full confidence that this approach will make PhosAgro an even more sustainable producer of mineral fertilizers and unlock additional value for the Company and its products. 

“Looking ahead at the short-term outlook, we believe that our 2Q 2019 EBITDA margin will be sustainable through the year end, driven by a recovery in seasonal demand from Europe and Latin America, a correction in feedstock prices, as well as a recovery in the premium NPK market and a stable nitrogen market. Our domestic market, which is a strategic priority for us, is also expected to support sales, driven by high farmer purchasing power. We are therefore comfortable to once again reiterate our full-year production guidance of around 9.4-9.5 million tonnes of fertilizers.”

2Q 2019 market conditions

– Average prices for MAP (FOB Baltics) were down by 12% year-on-year to USD 357 per tonne due to the following factors:

– Prices for urea (FOB Baltic) increased by 11% year-on-year to USD 247 per tonne, driven by stable import demand from India and Latin America, combined with sanctions-related limitations on Iranian urea, lower domestic production levels in a number of Latin American countries and the absence of significant export volumes from China.

– Ammonia prices (FOB Baltic) declined by 4% year-on-year to average USD 222 per tonne as a result of the ramp up of new capacities at Eurochem and relatively low prices for natural gas.

2Q 2019 Financial performance 

In 2Q 2019, PhosAgro’s revenue rose by 3% year-on-year to RUB 58.1 billion (USD 901 million), mainly driven by meaningful growth in domestic sales of 37% year-on-year, to 0.8 million tonnes, due to an early start of the high season. However, this growth was largely offset by a decline in export sales volumes of 18% year-on-year to 1.4 million tonnes. 

Revenue by key products

In 2Q 2019, PhosAgro’s gross profit was RUB 26.4 billion (USD 411 million) with the gross profit margin at 45%, compared to 47% in 2Q 2018. Gross profit and margin performance for the phosphate and nitrogen segments were as follows: 

Consolidated EBITDA decreased by 2% year-on-year to RUB 18.3 billion (USD 284 million), with an EBITDA margin of 32% for 2Q 2019, compared to 33% in 2Q 2018. Net profit adjusted for non-cash FX items was down 21% year-on-year to RUB 9.2 billion (USD 142 million) for 2Q 2019. 

In 2Q 2019, the RUB/USD exchange rate increased by 5% year-on-year to average RUB 64.6, from RUB 61.8 in 2Q 2018. This had a net positive impact, as prices for most of the Company’s products are denominated in USD, while costs are primarily rouble-based. The appreciation of the rouble as of 30 June 2019 (RUB 63.1 per USD) compared to 31 March 2019 (RUB 64.7 per USD) resulted in an FX gain of RUB 2.6 billion (compared to a RUB 8.7 billion FX loss in 2Q 2018).

Net operating cash flow increased by 20% year-on-year to RUB 19.4 billion (USD 300 million) on working capital release, primarily driven by the launch of a factoring programme and an increased focus on the domestic market. In 2Q 2019, domestic sales of fertilizers accounted for 36% of total fertilizer sales volumes, compared to 27% in 1Q 2019.

PhosAgro’s capital expenditure for 2Q 2019 totalled RUB 9.1 billion (USD 141 million), up by 19% year-on-year and representing 50% of the Company’s EBITDA for the same period. The main capex items were scheduled maintenance and development of the upstream business, as well as finishing construction of new mid-stream capacities at Cherepovets (nitric acid, sulphuric acid and ammonium sulphate lines).

Net debt/LTM EBITDA as of 30 June 2019 declined to 1.3x from 1.8x as of 31 December 2018, reflecting solid EBITDA performance and the gradual rouble appreciation against the US dollar throughout 1H 2019. Net debt totalled RUB 109.7 billion (USD 1.7 billion) as of 30 June 2019.

Cost of Sales

Cost of sales increased by 6% year-on-year in 2Q 2019 to RUB 31.7 billion (USD 491 million). The key factors behind this growth were:

Administrative expenses for 2Q 2019 rose by 13% year-on-year to RUB 4.1 billion (USD 64 million), primarily due to 14% year-on-year growth in salaries and social contributions.

In 2Q 2019, selling expenses remained flat year-on-year around RUB 8.4 billion (USD 130 million). This performance was primarily due to: 

Market outlook

Phosphate-based fertilizer prices are expected to stabilise in the medium term, followed by a gradual recovery driven by the following factors:

Other factors that are expected to influence the market in 2H 2019 include the launch of new phosphate-based fertilizers production capacities at OCP and Ma’aden.