The second battle—over what will actually be included in the new program—is ongoing. However, there will be clear shifts in priority for military branches, regions, and equipment.
Much of what was done in 2011-2017 was, de facto, modernizing a Soviet military, which had been left moribund by two decades without investment. There were select new additions to defense capabilities, but even the ‘latest and greatest’ advances were based on designs the Soviet Union had on the books in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The previous modernization program succeeded in upgrading old equipment, and deploying modernized versions of existing designs.
Now, the Russian leadership wants to see a lot more in the way of new systems.
Their new focus is on the technology of the future: smart weapons, automated command and control, recon platforms, communications, and drones of various types. All of these are consistent problems in Russia’s armed forces.
Military aspects of Russia’s faltering space program will also be addressed.
The strategic rocket forces that control Russia’s land-based nuclear weapons are also due for an upgrade. The new armaments plan will include the new heavy Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which is in development to replace the expiring Voeyvoda R-36M2 (SS-18 Satan) ballistic missile.
In terms of regional focus, Russian armed forces in the Southern, Western and Arctic military districts are likely to see the greatest investments. Modernization has focused heavily on improving forces around Ukraine and the North Caucasus. It is now spreading to the broader Western military district, forces in the Baltic, and those commanded by the Northern Fleet.
While the previous program favored the air force, navy, and strategic rocket forces, the war in Ukraine imposed unexpected requirements on ground and airborne forces. Perhaps as much as a quarter of the new program will go to the army. They can expect to receive further upgrades in soldier’s kit (Ratnik grade), air defense systems, new armored vehicles in every class from infantry combat vehicles and armored personnel carriers to new Armata tanks.
The other major winner is likely to be aviation. Russia will continue investing in new combat helicopters, but the main focus will be on fixed-wing aircraft. The airforce will likely continue receiving new Su-30SM, Su-35s, and Su-34M aircraft.
The big ticket item, however, is the planned relaunch of the Soviet-designed Tu-160 strategic bombers, which will improve long-range strike capability. The modernization comes at the same time as delays in the development of a new strategic bomber aircraft, known as the Tupolev PAK DA, and S-500 air defense system.
In better news, Russia hopes the Sukhoi PAK FA stealth fighter program will enter limited production within the timeline of the program.