‘Abrupt Regime Change’ Poses Risk to Russian Economy, Moody’s Says

Moody’s Investors Service has for the first time named “abrupt regime change” as a risk factor for the Russian economy.

Analysts have forecast increasing competition within the Kremlin and growing popular discontent over social issues as Vladimir Putin’s fourth presidential term approaches its end in 2024.

Moody’s named regime change as one of several “distant but tangible” key risks to the Russian economy, the RBC news website reported Monday.

“Moody’s first mention of this risk [in its analysis] signals the beginning of a countdown,” writes Russia’s The Bell business outlet.

The credit rating agency says that Putin’s high popular approval doesn’t carry over to the rest of the political system, as demonstrated by the difficulties Kremlin-backed candidates faced at the gubernatorial elections last year.

Moody’s identified other key areas of concern to the Russian economy, including state dominance, new foreign sanctions, capital outflow and a declining population, RBC reported.