But it did not have to be this way. In November 2016, when he declared his candidacy, Macronoutlinedforeign policy positions that were not hostile to Moscow. He argued that Russia must play a decisive role in ending the conflict in Syria and said ousting Syrian President Bashar Assad cannot be a prior condition for taking action to end the war.
Macron criticized his former mentor, President Francois Hollande, for pushing Russia to isolate itself from Europe and to look toward Asia. He favored renewed peace talks to stabilize the situation in eastern Ukraine and the gradual lifting sanctions against Russia.
Moscow ignored Macron at the time because he was still considered a long shot. Besides, Vladimir Putin’s personal friend Francois Fillon had just won the primaries for Les Republicans, the major center-right party. Fillon instantly became the most likely winner of the election, followed by Marine Le Pen, the Kremlin’s second choice.
With at least three strong candidates — Le Pen, Fillon, and ultra-left populist Jean-Luc Melenchon — mirroring Russia’s positions on Crimea, Eastern Ukraine, NATO and Syria, it seemed the Kremlin could not lose.
Moscow was relaxed and did not wage a major media effort to influence the election. But that changed in early 2017, when Fillon found himself engulfed in a corruption scandal involving his wife and his ratings tanked. Meanwhile, Macron began surging in the polls. Le Pen’s support was also sliding, and now Macron was projected to defeat her in the runoff.
