Besides, the return of any of the islands, seized by the Soviet Union in the final days of World War II, is extremely unpopular in today’s Russia. Over the years, polls have consistently shown that 70 percent to 90 percent of Russians reject such a handover. Putin’s predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, was at several points close to ceding some territory to Japan, but he always stepped back, fearing a powerful backlash from Communist and nationalist rivals.
Now, both Abe and Putin really want to put the matter behind them.
Abe’s primary interest is his legacy. If he can keep his job until the next scheduled election in 2021, he would be the longest-serving Japanese prime minister. But economic growth, spurred by his generous stimulus policies, has started to slow this year, and his tenure isn’t assured. He needs an important win to stay in power and ensure his place in history. A deal with Russia, though it would face some domestic opposition, could be perceived as such a victory when confidence in Abe’s foreign policy is flagging: Japanese voters are more open to a compromise than Russians.
Putin’s interest is both economic and geopolitical. A deal with Japan would potentially open the flow of Japanese investment to Russia’s Far East, a vast, underdeveloped region where Russia needs to counterbalance a growing Chinese influence. Improving relations with Japan would also help Putin in his search for alternatives to cooperation with the West. He knows by now that U.S. economic sanctions and weaker European restrictions are here to stay, so he’s working feverishly to buttress other partnerships in the Middle East and Asia. On Monday, Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan watched a Russian natural gas pipeline make landfall in Turkey; Japan, too, is a potential customer for Russian pipeline gas, but giant projects like building a delivery system are unimaginable without a peace treaty.
Putin is playing for high stakes, and Shikotan and Habomai, a little more than 100 square miles of inhospitable land with a population of about 2,000, wouldn’t be a huge loss by comparison, except politically. The Russian social networks are rife with speculation about a possible handover, and the comments aren’t flattering to Putin. “How loudly we ‘took’ Crimea and how quietly we’re giving up the islands” is a typical sentiment. Putin is being accused of selling Russian land because his regime has mishandled Russia’s windfall from high oil prices in the 2000s.