I would advise Putin to make the following points very clear: First, Russia is not the United States’ enemy and it is not trying to undermine American interests around the world. It would be worth telling Trump that in person.
Secondly, stress Russia’s readiness to cooperate with U.S. interests. Donald Trump is a pragmatist, with a business-oriented approach to international relations, which is stripped of all ideology. He is open to a concrete dialogue about national interests. So such an approach would impress him.
It’s not in the interests of the U.S. to allow the strengthening of China or a direct military confrontation with Russia, or to weaken its relations with its allies — all of which will happen if the current escalation continues. We have many common interests in Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
Thirdly, it’s imperative to clearly establish spheres of responsibilities in Syria, not only for the prevention of armed conflicts, but to achieve a clear understanding of who should be liberating which territories of terrorists. It’s essential to move forwards and prevent a further worsening of relations.
Fourthly, Putin needs to stress with Trump the need to consider strategic stability. It is in the interests of both countries to prevent a collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), and to prolong the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New Start.)
Finally, Putin should point out to Trump that solving the Ukrainian problem is not possible if Ukraine does not fulfill its part of the Minsk agreement. It is in the U.S. interest to put some pressure on Ukraine.
The main problem: Russia has become an instrument in domestic U.S. politics in order to weaken the presidential administration. That can only be solved by returning to the previous [political] establishment, but that means a further worsening of relations [between Russia and the U.S.].
The second problem that cannot be solved is Russia and the U.S.’ approach to the global order. The United States is still fighting for a leadership position in a unipolar world. Russia protests against this, and comes out in defense of a multipolar world.
The third, more narrow problem, is Iran. The United States will aim to weaken Iran, while Russia sees Iran as an important partner and ally. The fourth problem, which might be easier to solve, is Ukraine.
Russia is trying to get Ukraine to fulfill the Minsk agreement, and change the status quo to its advantage. The United States want to keep the status quo that emerged after the Maidan protests, and is not able to put the necessary pressure on Ukraine because of the domestic obstacles Donald Trump faces.
Even if Putin resigns, Russia will continue to be used by the U.S. elite to weaken Trump, so today it has become practically impossible to improve bilateral relations between the two countries.
At the same time, there are certain steps Russia could take to send a clear signal that it’s not an anti-American player, and present those steps as a certain symbolic victory for Trump.
For example, to commit to never violate the airspace of NATO countries or allow dangerous situations to emerge there, put more pressure on the Syrian regime and make completely clear the impermissibility of the use of chemical weapons or military force in this conflict. It could focus on the fight against Islamic State* instead of the opposition in Syria, and take up a harsher position towards North Korea.
That would make it easier for Trump to sell [the idea] of a constructive cooperation with Russia at home.
*Islamic State is a terrorist group banned in Russia.
(With reporting from David Kharebov)
