Russia’s population could drop to 130 million by 2046 due to declining immigration numbers and low birth rates, according to a worst-case projection by Russia’s statistics agency Rosstat, the RBC news website reported.
Rosstat predicts Russia’s population will drop from the current 146.1 million to 138.8 million by 2046 under its most likely scenario, which was released in October.
Rosstat’s latest worst-case scenario anticipates an even deeper population decline of 15.4 million over the next 22 years, which would amount to 700,000 fewer people living in the country each year.
The agency’s best-case scenario envisions an increase of 4.59 million people to 150.87 million by 2046.
The data does not account for Ukrainian territories captured during Russia’s invasion, according to RBC.
Under its pessimistic outlook of 130.6 million people, Rosstat anticipates the population’s natural decrease — where deaths outpace births — to average 854,000 each year. The number of people immigrating to Russia is expected at 154,000 people per year.
The statistics agency’s worst-case and best-case projections could come to fruition in the unlikely case of births, deaths and immigration figures rising or falling at the same time, demographer Igor Yefremov told RBC.
Yefremov cautioned that Rosstat’s pessimistic outcome is more likely than the optimistic outlook due to current trends in immigration, birth rates and average lifespan.
In reality, he said the three components of Rosstat’s forecasts will likely combine to a figure closer to the baseline projection of 138.8 million by 2046.
