Opposition-led and non-political protests will continue and even intensify, especially around the date of the election, March 18.
While not posing a direct threat to businesses — other than the possible temporary disruption of work in case rallies are held in the vicinity of operation sites — the government’s strategy of undermining these protests, mainly through increasing control over the internet, could hurt international IT companies working in Russia.
4. The threat of terrorism could spike
Homegrown terrorism, increasingly driven by radicalized youth from Muslim communities, and the return of Islamic State militants from Iraq and Syria are likely to pose a security risk to Russia and its neighbors.
To mitigate it, Russia will continue to share intelligence with Central Asian countries bilaterally and as part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. It will also boost security at its borders.
Security concerns will become particularly poignant ahead of the FIFA World Cup, which Russia hosts next summer in 2018.
Security on public transport and in stadiums will be tightened in all 11 host cities, causing disruption to operations and movement.
The terrorist bombing in St. Petersburg metro last spring and the ongoing nationwide wave of bomb threat phone calls that the Russian security services embarrassingly have not been able to stop several months dampen confidence in their abilities to mitigate similar risks next year.
Nabi Abdullaev is an Associate Director at Control Risks, which has just released its annual RiskMap report, and a former editor-in-chief of The Moscow Times.
The views and opinions expressed in opinion pieces do not necessarily reflect the position of The Moscow Times.
